In my previous article, “Hidden Data in the Hop Stocks Report” I predicted that an October surprise would be coming and that it would center around climate change. Since then, most news outlets around the world have run a story about hops and how hoppy beers are in jeopardy due to climate change[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12]. Many of these articles did not miss the opportunity to include the passive aggressive message, “there can be no beer without hops”. Fear is good for the hop business. I don’t expect many merchants or farmers will dispute the claims of the article. It’s not in their interests to refute an article that can increase prices[13].
All the hype seems to have started from an article in the Journal of Nature Communications called “Climate-induced decline in the quality and quantity of European hops calls for immediate adaptation measures”[14]. The article projected that by 2050 that yields of hops and alpha would decline by as much as 18 and 30 percent respectively. This, the article claimed, was based on alleged yield reductions between 1971 and 2018. I reviewed the data behind the claims. You can too if you like by clicking here.
The lead author on the article is Martin Mozny[15], a researcher at the Department of Climate Change Impacts on Agroecosystems at the Global Change Research Institute in Brno, Czech according to the Czechglobe website[16]. There, the department explains that “Climate change results in a need for changes in the agricultural sector”[17]
It seems from that description the organization has determined the conclusion of the work they do before conducting their research. Considering that, the article published in Nature Communications seems appropriate. Their claims that climate change jeopardizes future hop production are easily debunked. I will do that in this article.
“I suppose it is tempting, if the only tool you have is a hammer, to treat everything as if it were a nail.”
- Abraham Maslow, The Psychology of Science: A Reconnaissance, 1966
FOLLOW THE MONEY
Sponsorship bias was first recognized in 1917 within the pharmaceutical industry and plenty of evidence exists that it continues to be a problem[18][19][20][21]. If you can’t tell by the name, sponsorship bias is when the design and reporting of experiments favor the sponsor’s goals[22]. In simpler terms, the sponsoring organization gets the results it wants.
In 2022, I documented in two articles how Washington hop farmers have manipulated the results of the WSU cost of production survey since 2010. They provided inaccurate and misleading instructions to WSU researchers[23][24]. That increased the alleged costs of hop production by thousands of dollars per acre, which inflated the prices breweries paid since then by about 25%, totaling hundreds of millions of dollars. I will discuss that more in my next article. For now, it is sufficient to say that the WSU Cost of Hop Production survey is a brazen example of how a sponsoring organization can manipulate research to receive the results they want. It also demonstrates that if you are not familiar with the data, as most brewers are not, you won’t notice the manipulation.
A SPANISH MISSION
The Spanish company Ekonoke claims they are on a mission to save the world’s beer[25]. Sensational claims are often picked up by media outlets[26][27][28]. This one claims the world is heading toward a hop shortage and Ekonoke has the solution, hydroponics[29]. If you’ve been reading my articles, you know the industry is not heading for a shortage … Quite the opposite.
Ekonoke is not the first to try hydroponic indoor farming of hops. The same thing was tried during the past decade in Colorado[30][31] and North Carolina[32]. In 2016, there were claims that hydroponics were going to change the hop industry[33]. Fast forward to 2023 … no changes.
The pros and the cons of farming hops indoors hydroponically are well known. On the plus side, there can be up to four harvest per year. Using small plots to extrapolate data companies claim they can produce 50 times more hops per area than conventional farming[34]. They claim pesticides can be eliminated or greatly reduced, and fertilizer can be applied directly to the plant via the solution in which it grows. The prohibitively high cost of labor and infrastructure are the problems[35]. Indoor farming might be a great idea for high dollar crops and all the purple lights make for a cool futuristic video.
Claiming to be on a mission to save the world’s beer from climate change is great marketing and was enough sufficient to secure the company a 4.2 million Euro investment (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Investment in hydroponic hop farming in Spain.
Source: Foodtech in Spain[36].
I think hydroponics is an amazing technology. It seems it needs a very high dollar crop to be a viable solution. Perhaps saffron, white truffles or oyster mushrooms might be more realistic than hops.
THE HOLY GRAIL
Climate change is science, right? A significant percentage of the population does not trust the science or the media after Covid[37][38][39][40]. Recognizing this, on November 13, 2023 UNESCO will host a roundtable to discuss building and preserving trust in science after damage done by the pandemic[41][42]. According to the CATO institute, we expect too much of “the science”[43]. Climate change is an issue involving science that has polarized people. Many claim if we don’t act now to change there will be untold suffering[44]. Others say it’s already too late[45][46]. If you’re not a believer, you’re labeled a denier or canceled[47][48]. Science has not always proven itself to be correct in hindsight. In the 1950s, science said smoking was ok[49]. Ads with doctors promoting smoking were common[50]. A quick Google search turns up plenty of entertaining examples (Figure 2). In another example of sponsorship bias, tobacco companies sponsored the research and paid for the ads[51][52].
Figure 2. Google search of 1950s cigarette ads doctors.
Source: Google
For the record, let me say: I believe that the climate is changing[53][54]. I’m not sure what that means for the future[55][56][57]. Is CO2 plant food? How much of it is in the atmosphere? If we need to reduce that number, what level is the proper goal[58][59]? It seems there’s a lot of science, but also plenty of uncertainty on both sides[60][61][62]. It would be nice to hear all the facts from both sides in a well-moderated debate instead of one side censoring the other. Even the Audubon Society has said government censorship regarding climate change is out of control[63][64][65].
OPPORTUNISM
Climate change in 2023 is a way to grab attention … and money. It’s the flavor of the month for a hop industry that wants prices to continue increasing forever. The data, however, do not indicate that hops are at any greater risk than they have ever been. The purpose of this article is not to dispute that the climate is changing. The purpose is to demonstrate that the motivations for perpetuating the myth that climate change is coming after your hoppy beer is motivated by money, power and influence.
I demonstrated how data can be misrepresented in my August 3, 2023 article entitled, “Hop Price Manipulation 101”. In it, I demonstrated how Yakima Chief, in their July 23, 2023 Hop Wire blog[66], showed a graph of Citra ®, HBC 394 acreage between 2020 until 2023. The graph implied a massive acreage decline. Below that, I showed that variety’s acreage between 2013 and 2023 to demonstrate the minor decrease in acreage relative to the gains of the prior decade. The same applies with climate change.
Present climate change models use the mid-1800s as their starting point for measuring temperature increases. Since then, the world has warmed. According to this January 2023 Nature article, we are experiencing the warmest periods in the past 1,000 years. That’s true. According to this June 2020 Nature article, however, the “Roman Warming Period”, was as much as two degrees Celsius warmer than current temperatures. If, instead of 1855, the baseline year for measuring global temperature was when Marcus Aurelius ruled the Roman Empire (161-180 CE), we might be thankful the world didn’t keep cooling in the mid 1800s (Figure 3). According to data from the CO2coalition, it looks like we avoided an ice age. Which science are we supposed to believe?
Figure 3. Greenland ice core temperature data for the past 10,000 years
Source: CO2 Coalition[67].
It’s easy to confuse weather with climate because we experience weather[68][69]. So, the issue of climate change is ripe for manipulation. It wasn’t long ago that the future of humanity didn’t look so good. After several years of below average temperatures, scientists in the 1970s began talking about the coming ice age[70]. The media presented the narrative and people believed the claims[71][72].
By 1977, the cover of Time magazine was of a penguin on an iceberg and a subtitle, “The Global Warming Survival Guide”[73]. A few years after that, Walter Cronkite confirmed the Earth was warming.
We are not being lied to. We are not being presented the whole picture … like the people who believed what they read in that July 2023 Hop Wire blog. Combining climate change and hops is a dream come true for merchant/farmers. It offers a perpetual fear of a shortages and the urgency to act now[74]. It’s the perfect con. Once you know how to spot the manipulation, which is something I am trying to teach via my articles, you won’t be misled.
ARE YOU BEING SCAMMED?
The climate is changing. It always has. The solutions hide ulterior motives behind a veil of concern. According to the United Nations, carbon credits are a new commodity class[75]. Since October 11, 2023 it has been possible to trade them on the Tokyo Stock Exchange[76][77]. Even Greenpeace claims carbon credits are nothing more than a bookkeeping trick and the next big thing in greenwashing (Figure 4)[78]. Companies and governments are rushing to capitalize on the trend[79][80][81][82][83][84][85].
Figure 4. Tweet from Greenpeace International
Source: x.com available at: https://twitter.com/Greenpeace/status/1707322184547385759
The hop industry is running a long con[86]. Money has always been a motivator in the hop industry. Today, there is a bigger prize: control and influence over the entire industry. Due to proprietary hop varieties and products it is conceivable that two or three people control the hop industry within the next decade if breweries don’t change their purchase habits. Climate change is being used to drive people toward new proprietary varieties[87][88][89][90][91]. Any plant breeder will tell you it’s not possible to create a climate-resistant hop variety. They select for things like resistance or tolerance to diseases, pests and drought. Flavors and yields are also high on the list of desired traits they’re looking for. Those things don’t have the appeal of climate change.
A new wave of proprietary varieties will be sustainable and better able to adapt to climate change … claim the people who are creating them[92][93][94][95]. Behind the propaganda is a bonus. If breweries switch from traditional public varieties toward proprietary varieties, there will be less competition in the market. So the message of the day is “old variety bad … new variety good”. The EU patent system is changing and will resemble the U.S. system (i.e., it will benefit large corporate patent holders)[96][97]. That’s good if you’re the owner of one of those new varieties.
While climate change seems to be real, the financial scam driving it is becoming apparent. In September 2023, Nestle and Gucci discovered that forest protection schemes in which they had invested misrepresented the facts making them worthless[98][99][100]. Cons, Ponzi schemes and cartels always collapse, but not before fortunes are made and lost[101][102][103]. According to University of Arizona professor, Barak Orbach, there are four characteristics of classic cons[104].
1) They are driven by greed,
2) They appear compassionate,
3) They prey on your fear, and
4) They capitalize on uncertainty.
Do you see any similarities between those four characteristics, the idea that climate change is coming for your hoppy beer and the proposed solution of new proprietary varieties?
DEBUNKING THE CLIMATE CHANGE – HOP STORY
The claims of the article that generated worldwide attention regarding declining hop yields is easy to debunk. The authors analyzed data from the Hallertau region of Germany along with four other growing areas using the Barthhaas reports as their source. The explanation given for using these regions is that they represented 90% of European hop production. Using the article data available for download, I isolated the Hallertau-related yield data. The Hallertau region was a logical place to start since it is the largest growing region in the largest hop producing country in Europe. When graphed, it showed declining yields between 1970 and 2018 (Figure 5).
Figure 5. Hallertau yield data from Journal of Nature Communications article.
Source: Journal of Nature Communications.
The article’s source data didn’t look right to me. I’ve worked with hops for 24 years, but during that time I know that yields have increased due to variety changes alone. The data from the article did not correspond with that. To verify the data myself, I checked the Barthhaas reports between 1970 and 2018 to retrieve the average yields per hectare[105]. When I graphed the Hallertau yield data I collected, they showed an increase in yields between 1970 and 2018 (Figure 6).
Figure 6. Hallertau growing region yields 1970-2018.
Source: Barthhaas Reports 1970-2018
The article claimed to use Barthhaas reports as their source data. Placing the data from the article and the data I collected from the Barthhaas reports side by side revealed that the article’s data was identical to the Barthhaas report data from 1970 until 1980. In 1981, the article data diverged from actual data, are available online[106]. That divergence continued through the end of the survey period (Figure 7).
Figure 7. Comparison of actual Barthhaas Report data with article data.
Source: Actual data: Barthhaas Reports 1970-2018, Article data: Journal of Nature Communications
After uncovering this error in the historical data for the Hallertau region, I did not review data for any other regions. I searched for explanation for the divergence of the data in 1981. I thought perhaps varieties were excluded. In the reporting summary, however, the authors state, “no data were excluded from the analyses”[107]. I found their mistake. Beginning in 1981, the researchers mistook the yield for the Hallertau variety for the yield of the entire Hallertau region. That’s not a mistake that anybody who knows anything about hops would make. Whether it was intentional to create the results the researchers were looking for or not, I cannot say with any certainty. There were several format changes in the Barthhaas report between 1970 and 2018 that made it difficult to follow a data trail. In the 1980s, it might have been easier to mistake the Hallertau variety for the Hallertau region. The Barthhaas reports since 2010 are well labeled. It would be difficult to make the same mistake. That makes me think it’s possible the results were intentionally misrepresented to achieve the desired results. On October 23, 2023, I emailed the author of the study to discuss this, but I received no response.
“Outside of their particular area of expertise scientists are just as dumb as the next person.”
- Richard P. Feynman
If the authors could not transcribe data in the Barthhaas reports from 1970-2018, their future projections are worthless. That saved me from exploring their hop forecasts based on projected future solar radiation levels. My initial reaction to that was that any 33-year predictions based on 48 years of data would have a very low probability of accuracy.
It seems the researchers wanted results to confirm their foregone conclusions about hop yields and climate change. Somebody wishing to make the opposite case could, using their methods, claim that climate change has been good for hop yields and that by 2050 there will be surpluses. That would be equally irresponsible. Correlation does not imply causation[108][109]. Other factors like new varieties, improved farming practices and changing harvesting techniques influence yields.
Based on the Hallertau yield mistakes alone, the article and its projections are worthless and should be removed from the publication. I believe the Journal of Nature Communications should withdraw the article and try to correct the wave of misinformation they perpetuated around the world. I will share this article with them and many of the outlets that reported on their article this week. I doubt the news outlets that claimed climate change was coming for your hoppy beer will retract their claims. That wouldn’t be good for business.
If you’ve read this far into the article, you must be finding some value in what you’ve read. If that’s true, I would like to ask you to return some value by sharing this article somehow with somebody you think might also receive some value in it. I’ll share a link on my account on LinkedIn. That would be an easy play for repost the link so more people can access the information here. I’d also like to ask you to subscribe if you haven’t already. I was thinking of charging for these articles, but I’ve decided I will keep them free. So, please support independent journalism by subscribing and spreading the word.
BUT THE CLIMATE IS A PROBLEM
Europe is at risk of a severe hop shortage by 2030 due to climate change, but not for the reasons the article suggested. The politics associated with climate change threaten to do more damage to the European hop industry than the changing climate. Here are a few situations to consider:
The European Green Deal has set a goal of reducing pesticide usage by 50% by 2030. Stricter reductions for land near rivers and bodies of water will affect hop production in many European countries. The flaw in this well-intentioned legislation is believing that farmers spray more pesticides than necessary. Pesticides are expensive. Farmers spray the minimum amount needed to produce an average crop. Thinking they can reduce that amount by 50% might look good on paper, but it will result in reduced quality, lower yields and higher prices.
To protect the underground reservoir, farmers in the Hallertau region in Europe are restricted from drilling new wells. Wells are necessary to provide drip irrigation for hops and other crops. EU subsidy programs would ensure that German hop farmers who can install drip irrigation have access to money. I think most of the farmers who can legally have wells and drip irrigation on their farms already do.
When I started in the industry in 1999, I was told that in Germany they only contracted 80% of the anticipated yield. The reason, I was told, was the unpredictable fluctuations in yields from year to year. Since 2009, contract levels have been over 90% making the market more sensitive to weather changes. Perhaps hop merchants should return to a more conservative contracting practice. A look at German average hop yields between 1950 and 2023 reveals that fluctuating yields are the norm (note the upward trend over the period) (Figure 8).
Figure 8. German average hop yield 1950-2023
Source: Barthhaas Reports 1950-2022, German hop growers’ association press release for 2023 data.
A firm believer that climate change will say that by 1950 (the first year of the chart in figure 8) the effects of climate change were already present. That’s a fair argument since they begin measuring climate change in the 1850s. I didn’t have access to German hop yield data from the 19th century, so I found the next best thing. Price swings in the hop market (a.k.a. the hop cycle) are a result of a fluctuating supply of hops over time. German hop prices dating back to the late 1700’s show that hop prices (and presumably hop supply) have fluctuated for centuries (Figures 9 & 10). You can view those graphs for yourself in person at the German hop museum in Wolnzach, Germany[110]. If you’ve never visited, it’s worth your time.
Figure 9. German hop price record 1798-1847.
Source: German hop museum
Figure 10. German hop price record 1848-1876.
Source: German hop museum
MISSING THE POINT
The arguments for climate change coming after your hoppy beer were clickbait. They missed an important point. Centuries of hop producing history and experience exist in the U.S. and Germany. Together the two countries produce 80% of the world’s hops. Most of the hop processing infrastructure is in Europe and the U.S. The industry is established around these two production centers in the same way our world’s infrastructure relies on fossil fuels for energy production. That’s not going to change because there is a lot of money at stake[111][112][113]. A brilliant innovation in hydroponic hops won’t offset incremental improvements on a conventional hop farm if they are not affordable.
What is missing in these articles that predict the end of hoppy beer is that hop farmers and merchants will fight and innovate to keep their way of life. They live well and enjoy their lifestyle. They will finance innovation to improve their efficiency and to maintain a competitive advantage. The hop industry has never suffered from a lack of innovation. If there’s an agronomic solution to a problem, they will find it. If anything, hop farmers are too good at producing hops. That will never stop[114]. Farmers, however, cannot fix problems caused by politicians that are willing to sacrifice agriculture on the altar of climate change.
As hop market concentration has increased due to the domination of proprietary varieties, fewer people with greater influence over a larger portion of the industry have more to lose. Centralized power brokers will not let a slow-moving threat like climate change take away their livelihoods. They have time to innovate. Independent farmers may disappear if the current trend toward proprietary varieties continues, but so long as people crave hoppy beers there will always be plenty of hops to brew them.
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https://bluecarbon.ae
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